Kerrie Gemmill, CEO of ScoutsCymru, sets out ScoutsCymru’s response to the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap and explores what the change could mean for children, families and youth services in Wales.
Data from the Welsh Government’s Child Poverty Strategy Monitoring Framework 2025, published on 2 December 2025, shows a clear and widening gap in child poverty rates between smaller families and those with three or more children, with a distinct turning point following the introduction of the two-child benefit cap in 2018, deepening financial hardship for larger families. Until that point, poverty levels for larger families, although already higher, were relatively stable. However, from 2018 onwards there is a sharp and sustained rise, with the poverty rate for children in households with three or more children increasing from around 38% to nearly 50% by 2024. Meanwhile, poverty rates for one- and two-child households remained comparatively steady over the same period.
Last week’s UK Government Budget confirmed the removal of the two-child limit on welfare support. This policy change has the potential to significantly shift child poverty levels in Wales. Analysis from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) suggests that an estimated 400,000 children could be lifted out of poverty across the UK over the course of the UK Parliament as a result, 69,000 of those in Wales. The change is particularly important for families with three or more children, who have been disproportionately affected by the cap since its introduction
Removing the cap now is therefore expected to ease pressure on many households and play a vital role in reducing child poverty in Wales. But JRF is clear that this change, while welcome, does not reverse the broader picture. Living standards remain “bleak” for many households, with rising costs, falling real incomes and uneven access to services continuing to shape daily life. For organisations supporting young people, these insights underline what many of us see first-hand – families are doing their best, but the pressures are real, persistent and increasingly difficult to navigate.
This is where ScoutsCymru has an essential role to play.
As the largest youth organisation in Wales, with around 18,000 members when you count volunteers and young people, and a presence in every local authority, we see the realities behind the JRF data. We work in communities where families are balancing rising bills, where transport barriers limit access to activities and where young people’s confidence is often affected by stress at home. And yet, at the same time, we see every week how the right support, offered consistently, locally and affordably, can protect wellbeing, build resilience and shape brighter futures.
The pressures young people are facing
JRF’s analysis highlights that low-income families, even those helped by the removal of the two-child limit, remain under considerable strain. These pressures are mirrored in the trends we see in Wales:
These challenges don’t exist in isolation. Together, they affect confidence, routine, aspirations and participation. They shape how young people see themselves and their future. Without early, community-based support, the effects can last far beyond childhood.
Scouting’s role in tackling these inequalities
The JRF findings reinforce something we know well, that families need support that is affordable, local and relational. Scouting offers exactly that.
Each week, for an average cost of around £1.20, young people across Wales gain access to activities that their families often tell us they would not otherwise be able to provide – outdoor adventures, leadership opportunities, teamwork, problem-solving and time in nature. Many groups also operate hardship funds, uniform banks and fee support so that financial pressure never becomes a barrier.
These are the kinds of opportunities JRF argues are increasingly unequal – the “missing experiences” that shape long-term outcomes. Scouting helps close that gap by offering young people the chance to:
These are the protective factors research consistently links to improved life chances.
Reaching the communities JRF highlights
The JRF analysis draws attention to rural inequality, something all too familiar in Wales, where transport, distance and isolation can deepen financial strain.
ScoutsCymru is one of the few youth organisations with true national reach. Our volunteers are embedded in towns, villages, valleys and coastal communities, offering activities that young people can access close to home without needing expensive travel. In many rural areas, the local Scout hall is one of the only spaces where young people can meet, learn and belong.
Urban disadvantage is equally significant. Our groups in the most deprived areas of Swansea, Newport, Wrexham and Cardiff regularly report the positive impact of consistency, routine and trusted adult relationships, exactly the kinds of support JRF identifies as crucial for children growing up with uncertainty.
A proven model with long-term outcomes
JRF emphasises that tackling the root causes of poverty requires not only financial support but investment in confidence, capability and future participation. This is an area where Scouting has a strong evidence base.
Across Wales:
These are precisely the factors that reduce the likelihood of young people becoming NEET They are also the ingredients that help young people navigate the pressures JRF describes – resilience, confidence, social connection and a sense of agency.
Working together for Wales’ future
But the coming years require more than alignment. They require leadership and they require challenge. When government commitments fall short of young people’s needs, the voluntary youth sector must be willing to say so clearly, backed by evidence, experience and the voices of the communities we serve.
Our sector is not an optional extra. We are a frontline workforce delivering preventative support where statutory services cannot reach. If Wales is serious about improving life chances, reducing inequality and responding to the pressures JRF highlights, then the expertise of youth organisations must be listened to and acted upon.
That means being unafraid to hold government to account when policies overlook young people and equally, unafraid to offer solutions rooted in what we see every week in halls and community spaces across Wales. The third sector is often closest to the lived realities behind the data. With that proximity comes a responsibility to speak with clarity, confidence and urgency.
Kerrie said:
‘In a Wales where too many families are still struggling and too many young people risk being left behind, silence is not an option. This is our call to action, the voluntary youth sector must step forward, raise our collective voice and play a central role in shaping the decisions that will impact a generation.’
